New York State Lake Effect Snow - Weather Blog

November comes in like a lamb, and goes out like a lion.

Sat, 01 Nov 2008 19:00:14 +0700

Here's my forecast for November 2008...

First off the beginning of the month looks to be warm , then the bottom drops out .This all coming after a major storm in the NE last week bringing record snowfall. The NAO and the PNA look slightly NEG neutral right now... however this will change by months end. On the other hand the AO is dropping and will continue to do so all month before tanking. The AO does have too much of an affect here at the mid-latitude but it does have some correlation to our weather. Both the GFS and the Euro show a mild period for the first week or so of November , then show a trough developing in the east with riding taking place across the western CONUS by 7-8 days out. With the NAO becoming negative more amplification of troughs can than take place instead of shortwave progressive troughs.

The NAO is currently slightly NEG to neutral but will beginning to fall after the first week of November. What does this mean? Well this means that we will have a much better chance of seeing more amplification of troughs and ridges bringing down colder for the eastern CONUS and warm air filling up the western CONUS. Storms also tend to be bigger and stronger during a NEG NAO.
So overall it looks like a pattern change is l coming with colder temperatures and a more suppressed jet stream.

The Long range GFS and 10 day ECMWF are now beginning to show this with increasing heights and blocking towards the N. pole, along with colder temperatures and lowering heights further south for the eastern CONUS.

The Euro also is hinting at a trough developing in the eastern CONUS with 500mb anomalies dropping across the east as they soar across the west.

In November of 2000 a similar pattern took place. In the poles blocking took place and 500mb heights were well above normal. However , in the CONUS the heights were well below normal, bringing cold air across much of the country.

This November the NEG NAO and the tanking of the AO will combine with the POS PNA to give much of the eastern CONUS colder temperatures after mid-month. With a POS PNA ridging can be expected to develop across the western CONUS.

With the jet stream dripping down, mid-latitude storms will move across the Plains and move up the jet stream along the Eastern Coast of the US. The storms will have cold air on their backside and warm air on their front side. The GFS already hints the storms coming across the CONUS. With this interior parts of the NE will see snow from these storms.

Also with winter time coming , we can't forget about those Alberta Clippers. The first Alberta Clippers of the season will likley drop down from Canada this month, bringing quick shots of snow and cold air to the eastern CONUS. With each Alberta Clipper a few inches of snow can be expected from Erie to Buffalo to Syracuse to the mountains of WV to the western suburbs of Boston.

Now comes my maps/predictions for the EASTERN CONUS.

First my temperature outlook. I believe even after a mild start to November , the month will land up trending negative across much of the eastern CONUS after the big cool down in mid-month.

Next is my precipitation outlook. The beginning of November will come in like a lamb with dry conditions for the first week or so of November until a S/W may make its way through the eastern CONUS around the 8th bringing precipitation to much of the east.After that it looks like it may be a busy pattern taking place.

Now we will take a look at my snowfall predictions for the month of November. Many areas this month that did not see snow from the "big daddy "storm last week will likley their first snow this month. I think the lake effect snow machine will really get going through the GL after mid month when the cold air ushers in. A Nor' Easter or 2 may also bring snow to interior sections of the NE.

Finally, is my projected track of storms for November. I believe after the trough establishes itself across the eastern CONUS storms will ride the trough near the coast bringing rain on the frontside and a wintry mix/snow on the backside.

Now a breakdown of November's weather for the EASTERN CONUS.

Nov. 1-7 -A brief chill to start off, then warming up by the 3rd.Bone dry.

Nov. 8-15-A chill will be on its way from the 8th - 11th that may leave you inside next to the fireplace with some hot coco. Flurries can also be expected with a low that moves across the CONUS.Yet another brief warm up can be expected by the 15th before the bottom drops out.

Nov. 16-22-A storm will make its way across the eatsern CONUS along with the amplification of a trough , bringing sharply colder temperatures to the eastern CONUS.Snowflakes will be flying and you may have to bring out the shovels. Lake effect snow may become a major concern also.

Nov. 23-30-Cold weather stays in place across the eastern CONUS.Many areas of the NE may have a hard time seeing green on their lawns.

Winter 2008 - 2009 Outlook

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:46:20 +0700

This Winter will be a cold one with lots of lake Effect due to a more western PV.With many troughs coming through the east it will also help keep the temps chilly. Above Normal Precip Will be found across The Great Lakes due to above average lake effect snow and many Alberta Clippers dropping down from Canada bringing us quick bouts of snow. Most coastal storms will stay too far off the shore for the Great Lakes to recieve any precip but the few Nor'easters that do develop will have an effect on the 1-95 corrodor bringing some snow to that region.

Does October Bring Lake Effect?

Wed, 01 Oct 2008 15:09:43 +0700

Well yes , In fact this October will bring lake effect... however it should be primary rain with a few flakes mixing in the higher elevations at night above 2000 feet. Although nothing will accumulate it could be exciting for all those people who love the snow...

FROM THE NWS IN BUFFALO,NY FORECAST DESCUSSION

A COMPLEX UPPER UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WITHIN THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL OPEN AND LIFT OUT TONIGHT AS THE NEXT AND DEEPER
LOW DROPS FROM JAMES BAY TO THE BASE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING TREND
ALOFT WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FALLING BELOW 0C BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 500MB TEMPS WILL SHOW A LITTLE MORE VARIABILITY
AS THE CURRENT COLD POOL OF TEMPS AROUND -25C SWINGS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...REBOUNDS A BIT TO A -18C TO -22C RANGE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...THEN THE COLDEST CORE OF NEAR -30C SETTLES IN JUST
NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE ON THURSDAY. THIS ALL POINTS TOWARD A
DEEP UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND NEW YORK STATE
FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND FURTHER INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AS THE SECOND LOW DROPS TOWARD THE LAKES AND THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS
ACROSS CENTRAL QUEBEC ON THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WELL
ALIGNED ALONG THE LENGTHS OF BOTH LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN INCREASES FROM THE LONGER FETCH AND
THE LONGER DWELL TIME...MODIFYING THE COLD AIR WITH WARM LAKE
MOISTURE. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR REGION DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES...FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER TO SOUTHERN METRO BUFFALO OFF LAKE
ERIE AND MAINLY ACROSS THE TUG HILL TO NEAR WATERTOWN OFF LAKE
ONTARIO...AND DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY POPS FARTHER
INLAND.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER TROF AXIS CROSSES THE EASTERN LAKES LATE THURS NT AND
EARLY FRI...WITH CORRESPONDING WIND SHIFT FROM WSW TO NW BY
FRIDAY. INITIALLY...THE THURS NT PERIOD WILL BE VERY ACTIVE WITH
WSW FLOW ALONG THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKES AND PLENTY OF UPLIFT.
850 MB TEMPS WILL BE WELL DOWN INTO THE ZERO TO -2C
RANGE...CREATING DELTA-T`S OF 18-20C AND EXTREME INSTABILITY. SO
LOOK FOR ROBUST LK EFFECT RAINS ON THURS EVE DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES...ESPECIALLY ERIE. WITH SUCH COLD TEMPS...GRAUPEL AND
THUNDER A POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

TROF SETTLES SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING
IT. FLOW TURNS GENERALLY NW ALTHOUGH MAY HANG W/SW IN BUF AREA AT
SFC ONLY. WILL STILL CARRY CHC POPS ALL AREAS WITH LOW LIKELY SE OF
THE LAKES. TEMPS ONLY L-M 50S WITH SUBZERO 850 MB TEMPS.

MAIN UPPER TROF FINALLY LIFTS UP INTO QUEBEC ON SATURDAY...LEAVING
OUR REGION IN A WEAKENING ZONAL FLOW. STILL SOME TROFFING HANGING
BACK TWD LK ONTARIO...HELPED ALONG BY THE WARM LAKE...SO HELD LOW
CHC POPS SE OF LAKE ONTARIO...BUT KEPT REST OF AREA DRY AS SFC
HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE LAKES. LOOK FOR A
DECENT AMT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS STILL SOME 10 DEG BELOW NORMAL
(M50S).

&&

New Fall Foliage Map

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:37:30 +0700

Here is a new fall foliage map as of 9/13/08
Most of the Region has only 5-15 percent of leaf color change which is a patchy coverage however higher elevations in the Adirondack Mountains have about 30 percent leave color change resulting in widespread leaf color change.When about 60 percent of the leaves have changed that's when it will be classified as near peak. Peak being 75-100 and past peak being after all the leaves have changed color and have fallen to the ground.

Please stay tuned to the blog for more maps, updates and details and an outlook on what could be some early fall flurries for parts of the Great Lakes.

The Lake Effect Kings

Sat, 13 Sep 2008 21:30:08 +0700

I would like to announce that Jim (OHweather2) on the accuweather.com forums are teaming up this winter to give everyone the latest and most accurate lake effect snow & winter weather forecast and observations.

I myself live in Amherst,NY (A suburb of Buffalo,NY) and Jim lives in Solon,OH which is a suburb of Cleavland,OH so we will both be reporting on this blog with lake effect snow reports and pictures throughout the winter season.

Please don't forget to report to us with your snow totals using the contact form on the wnylakesnow home page!

Looking forward to 7 months ahead!

Fall Foliage Maps

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:06:22 +0700

On the accuweather.com forum site under my name snowmaninbuffalo you can find my fall foliage maps there as well as on this weather blog. I will be posting new maps about 2 times a week so you at home can track where the leaves are changing colors meaning you can know the best time to go out and see the beautiful fall colors.

2008-2009 LES Season

Wed, 20 Aug 2008 13:01:59 +0700

As we all know this has been a very cool August and fall foliage is beginning to appear in many areas of the Northeast. With sub 70 degree days now in the near future with nighttime temps dropping into the 40s I am now beginning to take phone numbers and e mail addresses for the 2008-2009 Lake Effect Snow Season.Please send me an e mail at jrmeteorologistinbuffalo@gmail.com or call me at (716)-603-2532 to report snow totals once the first lake effect snow flakes beging to fly.

Thank you to all!

Your Winter Photos!

Mon, 09 Jun 2008 11:52:30 +0700

These are some photos that Steve M. of West Seneca/Orchard Park had taken this winter! Great shots Steve! Glad to share them with the public!The first photo is a photo of mine but the rest are Steve's.

My Website

Wed, 30 Apr 2008 12:03:27 +0700

For everyone who wants to get involved with my Website , feel free to. If you would like to link me to any of your own personal websites just e-mail me using my contact form on the home page. I will almost 100 percent say yes , I would just personally like to know of any sites I am being linked to before I'm permanently linked to it. I really appreciate the dozens and dozens of e-mails from people. I am currently taking in all of your suggestions and would love to hear from you. I am currently trying to get set up with a few "BIG" sites. I am working on getting linked with WIVB (4) page and goldensnowball.com . I would also one day in the near future like to try and get together with the NWS in Buffalo and work with them for next seasons LES.

Thank You Everyone !

Post Title.

Fri, 25 Apr 2008 19:16:48 +0700

A chance for some limited lake enhanced rain/snow showers in the highest elevations on Tuesday night? Well earlier tonight I was ever so lucky to have a chance to speak with WIVB-TV Chief Meteorologist Don Paul. While he thinks that this cold outbreak will be a pretty good one for this late in the year he thinks that there is still the potential for some lake enhanced rain/snow showers. While the temperature differential of the lake surface and the 850mb temps will be slightly less then 13 degrees which is sufficient to produce true lake effect snow , some convective showers/snow showers may form especially during the nighttime hours as we all loose the radiational heating from the sun. Don and I are both not sure of any snow totals yet , if any at all , but at this point its not looking very impressive at all. As trees leaves are blooming soem well on their way , we will have to watch this snow as whatever does fall will be of the heavy/wet variety. With the growing season well underway as well , plants and tender vegetation may also need to be brought indoors as temperatures do have the potential to drop into the sub-freezing range.Stay tuned for more updates and as always catch Chief Meteorologist Don Paul on WIVB-TV news on channel 4 and it's sister station WNLO for more updates and details coming up tonight at 10 and 11.